India’s Participation in the Trilateral Summit
In the 9th Trilateral summit held in Nicosia, Mediterranean countries – Israel, Cyprus, and Greece – extended an invitation to India, transforming it into a 3+1 format. This development holds substantial importance in Middle East geopolitics and has the potential to emerge as the next Quad 3.0.
Why the Invitation to India?
India’s burgeoning market is attracting global attention, particularly from foreign investors. Greece’s Prime Minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, expressed interest in forging a natural gas export partnership with India. The Eastern Mediterranean boasts abundant natural gas resources, and exploration in the area is on the rise, with significant discoveries off the coasts of Israel, Egypt, and Cyprus. This need for a market, coupled with regional conflicts with Turkey, has driven the effort to establish a power bloc in the Mediterranean by inviting India into the group.
The Emergence of Quad 3.0
The integration of India into this trilateral summit raises intriguing questions about the future geopolitical landscape in the Eastern Mediterranean. The three countries are keen on securing a substantial market for their natural gas resources, seeking a solid foundation in the energy sector, including natural gas, electricity, and renewable energy, in the Mediterranean region.
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has intensified the quest for alternative natural gas suppliers, highlighting the urgency of diversifying energy resources and establishing routes to global markets. With the potential for natural gas pipelines extending from Greece through Israel and the Arab world, facilitated by Israel’s diplomatic ties with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, a significant shift in energy dynamics is on the horizon. However, it remains to be seen whether this initiative will evolve into Quad 3.0.
Understanding the Quad
The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, known as the Quad, comprises four countries: India, Australia, Japan, and the United States. Originating in 2007 under the leadership of then-Japanese PM Shinzo Abe, the Quad plays a pivotal role in Indo-Pacific security cooperation. A new Quad has also formed, including India, the United States, UAE, and Israel.
Turkey’s Concerns
The Eastern Mediterranean region is not only rich in natural gas resources but also marred by maritime disputes. The Aegean Dispute between Greece and Turkey over the Aegean Sea has led to numerous clashes and strained relations. Turkey’s refusal to accept the United Nations Convention on the Laws of the Sea (UNCLOS) has further exacerbated disputes, extending to Cyprus and Nicosia. India’s recent visit to Greece, the first by an Indian PM in nearly four decades, has raised tensions with Turkey. However, Turkey’s alignment with Pakistan and support for extremist activities in India have also contributed to its isolation.
The future holds promise as India’s inclusion in the trilateral group strengthens the positions of Eastern Mediterranean countries vis-à-vis Turkey. This development could potentially reshape energy geopolitics and contribute to Quad 3.0, adding a new dimension to international relations in the region.
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